Overview / Economics / Contract detail
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.90 by Dec 31, 2026?
Settles Dec 31, 12AM ET·Aaagasminny
29¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
30¢crowd cost basis
-1¢distance from crowd basis
15.39×vol vs peers
10724h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Economics cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
15.39×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0432Category median logit vol/hr
30¢Crowd cost basis
64%Cost-basis conviction
13Similar category unusual moves
15%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 64% · profiled volume 169 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Economics reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
13unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
15%partial reversion rate
-27%avg move given backnet: kept extending