Overview / Economics / Contract detail
Will average **gas prices** be above $3.880?
Settles Jul 13, 12AM ET·Aaagasw
20¢current price
+0.15σoverextension z · high
100¢crowd cost basis
-80¢distance from crowd basis
0.55×vol vs peers
29,36624h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Economics cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
0.55×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0454Category median logit vol/hr
100¢Crowd cost basis
37%Cost-basis conviction
217Similar category unusual moves
41%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 37% · profiled volume 77,129 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Economics reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
217unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
41%partial reversion rate
5%avg move given back