LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-11T01:48
Status
Not trading advice Feedback

Overview / Entertainment / Contract detail

Will CONFESSIONS II by Madonna have above 130000 Album Equivalent Units during the July 03, 2026 - July 09, 2026 tracking week?

Closes in 36h·Albumequiv

74¢current price
overextension z · insufficient
crowd cost basis
+69¢distance from crowd basis
4.19×vol vs peers
5,08824h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Entertainment cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

4.19×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0573Category median logit vol/hr
Crowd cost basis
39%Cost-basis conviction
3Similar category unusual moves
67%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~10h ago~5h agolatestCrowd basis 5¢~10h before latest: 2.0¢~9h before latest: 2.0¢~8h before latest: 20.0¢~7h before latest: 20.0¢~6h before latest: 48.0¢~5h before latest: 50.0¢~4h before latest: 50.0¢~3h before latest: 6.0¢~2h before latest: 74.0¢~1h before latest: 74.0¢latest: 74.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 39% · profiled volume 7,693 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.07501,5002,2492,9990¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 2,999 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ price bucket: 0 contracts20¢ price bucket: 1,335 contracts25¢ price bucket: 0 contracts30¢ price bucket: 0 contracts35¢ price bucket: 0 contracts40¢ price bucket: 0 contracts45¢ price bucket: 0 contracts50¢ price bucket: 1,821 contracts55¢ price bucket: 0 contracts60¢ price bucket: 0 contracts65¢ price bucket: 0 contracts70¢ price bucket: 0 contracts75¢ current price bucket: 1,538 contracts80¢ price bucket: 0 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ price bucket: 0 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.

Entertainment reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

67% GAVE BACK
33% CONTINUED
BUILDING SAMPLE · n=3
3unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
67%partial reversion rate
22%avg move given back