LT
Logit Terminal Research
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi (licensed)
Last updated2026-07-10T03:33
Status
Not trading advice

Overview / Entertainment / Contract detail

Will Tom Holland be the next James Bond?

Closes in 1271d

current price
overextension z · insufficient
10¢crowd cost basis
-4¢distance from crowd basis
19.82×vol vs peers
16124h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Entertainment cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

19.82×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0601Category median logit vol/hr
10¢Crowd cost basis
100%Cost-basis conviction
2Similar category unusual moves
50%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~6h ago~3h agolatestCrowd basis 10¢~6h before latest: 3.0¢~5h before latest: 8.0¢~4h before latest: 7.0¢~3h before latest: 7.0¢~2h before latest: 6.0¢~1h before latest: 6.0¢latest: 6.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 100% · profiled volume 844 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.01442874305740¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ current price bucket: 270 contracts10¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 574 contracts15¢ price bucket: 0 contracts20¢ price bucket: 0 contracts25¢ price bucket: 0 contracts30¢ price bucket: 0 contracts35¢ price bucket: 0 contracts40¢ price bucket: 0 contracts45¢ price bucket: 0 contracts50¢ price bucket: 0 contracts55¢ price bucket: 0 contracts60¢ price bucket: 0 contracts65¢ price bucket: 0 contracts70¢ price bucket: 0 contracts75¢ price bucket: 0 contracts80¢ price bucket: 0 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ price bucket: 0 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.

Entertainment reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

50% GAVE BACK
50% CONTINUED
BUILDING SAMPLE · n=2
2unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
50%partial reversion rate
21%avg move given back