LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-11T13:06
Status
Not trading advice Feedback

Overview / Crypto / Contract detail

Bitcoin price range on Jul 10, 2026?

Settles Jul 10, 12AM ET

10¢current price
overextension z · insufficient
10¢crowd cost basis
-0¢distance from crowd basis
22.35×vol vs peers
12,45124h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Crypto cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

22.35×Vol vs comparable peers
0.1983Category median logit vol/hr
10¢Crowd cost basis
49%Cost-basis conviction
138Similar category unusual moves
22%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~7h ago~3h agolatestCrowd basis 10¢~7h before latest: 32.0¢~6h before latest: 45.0¢~5h before latest: 47.0¢~4h before latest: 56.0¢~3h before latest: 64.0¢~2h before latest: 80.0¢~1h before latest: 92.0¢latest: 10.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 49% · profiled volume 14,890 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.01,8143,6285,4437,2570¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 7,257 contracts15¢ price bucket: 0 contracts20¢ price bucket: 0 contracts25¢ price bucket: 0 contracts30¢ price bucket: 0 contracts35¢ price bucket: 0 contracts40¢ price bucket: 0 contracts45¢ price bucket: 1,975 contracts50¢ price bucket: 0 contracts55¢ price bucket: 2,298 contracts60¢ price bucket: 0 contracts65¢ price bucket: 358 contracts70¢ price bucket: 0 contracts75¢ price bucket: 0 contracts80¢ price bucket: 2,173 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ price bucket: 829 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.

Crypto reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

22% GAVE BACK
78% CONTINUED
138unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
22%partial reversion rate
3%avg move given back