LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-11T13:06
Status
Not trading advice Feedback

Overview / Crypto / Contract detail

Bitcoin price range on Jul 11, 2026?

Settles Jul 11, 12AM ET

90¢current price
overextension z · insufficient
45¢crowd cost basis
+46¢distance from crowd basis
4.51×vol vs peers
12,65724h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Crypto cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

4.51×Vol vs comparable peers
0.1983Category median logit vol/hr
45¢Crowd cost basis
27%Cost-basis conviction
138Similar category unusual moves
22%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~17h ago~8h agolatestCrowd basis 45¢~17h before latest: 34.0¢~16h before latest: 34.0¢~15h before latest: 44.0¢~14h before latest: 49.0¢~13h before latest: 47.0¢~12h before latest: 22.0¢~11h before latest: 34.0¢~10h before latest: 40.0¢~9h before latest: 31.0¢~8h before latest: 34.0¢~7h before latest: 44.0¢~6h before latest: 59.0¢~5h before latest: 65.0¢~4h before latest: 62.0¢~3h before latest: 60.0¢~2h before latest: 76.0¢~1h before latest: 84.0¢latest: 90.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 27% · profiled volume 12,996 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.07401,4792,2182,9580¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ price bucket: 0 contracts20¢ price bucket: 764 contracts25¢ price bucket: 0 contracts30¢ price bucket: 26 contracts35¢ price bucket: 1,960 contracts40¢ price bucket: 478 contracts45¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 2,958 contracts50¢ price bucket: 135 contracts55¢ price bucket: 0 contracts60¢ price bucket: 2,026 contracts65¢ price bucket: 922 contracts70¢ price bucket: 0 contracts75¢ price bucket: 1,902 contracts80¢ price bucket: 0 contracts85¢ price bucket: 1,155 contracts90¢ current price bucket: 670 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.

Crypto reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

22% GAVE BACK
78% CONTINUED
138unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
22%partial reversion rate
3%avg move given back