LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-11T13:06
Status
Not trading advice Feedback

Overview / Crypto / Contract detail

Bitcoin price range on Jul 11, 2026?

Settles Jul 11, 12AM ET

90¢current price
overextension z · insufficient
25¢crowd cost basis
+65¢distance from crowd basis
6.21×vol vs peers
16,23724h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Crypto cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

6.21×Vol vs comparable peers
0.1983Category median logit vol/hr
25¢Crowd cost basis
33%Cost-basis conviction
138Similar category unusual moves
22%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~11h ago~5h agolatestCrowd basis 25¢~11h before latest: 30.0¢~10h before latest: 25.0¢~9h before latest: 32.0¢~8h before latest: 44.0¢~7h before latest: 42.0¢~6h before latest: 28.0¢~5h before latest: 24.0¢~4h before latest: 48.0¢~3h before latest: 27.0¢~2h before latest: 71.0¢~1h before latest: 82.0¢latest: 90.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 33% · profiled volume 18,409 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.01,2952,5903,8855,1800¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ price bucket: 0 contracts20¢ price bucket: 0 contracts25¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 5,180 contracts30¢ price bucket: 819 contracts35¢ price bucket: 0 contracts40¢ price bucket: 971 contracts45¢ price bucket: 599 contracts50¢ price bucket: 4,216 contracts55¢ price bucket: 0 contracts60¢ price bucket: 0 contracts65¢ price bucket: 0 contracts70¢ price bucket: 2,069 contracts75¢ price bucket: 0 contracts80¢ price bucket: 2,377 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ current price bucket: 2,178 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.

Crypto reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

22% GAVE BACK
78% CONTINUED
138unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
22%partial reversion rate
3%avg move given back