LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-11T13:06
Status
Not trading advice Feedback

Overview / Crypto / Contract detail

BTC > $64,199.99

Settles Jul 11, 12AM ET·BTC ladder / hourly

87¢current price
overextension z · insufficient
50¢crowd cost basis
+37¢distance from crowd basis
6.77×vol vs peers
364,55724h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Crypto cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

6.77×Vol vs comparable peers
0.1983Category median logit vol/hr
50¢Crowd cost basis
37%Cost-basis conviction
138Similar category unusual moves
22%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~11h ago~5h agolatestCrowd basis 50¢~11h before latest: 18.0¢~10h before latest: 24.0¢~9h before latest: 50.0¢~8h before latest: 44.0¢~7h before latest: 58.0¢~6h before latest: 58.0¢~5h before latest: 46.0¢~4h before latest: 62.0¢~3h before latest: 78.0¢~2h before latest: 74.0¢~1h before latest: 48.0¢latest: 87.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 37% · profiled volume 417,015 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.023,80347,60671,40895,2110¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ price bucket: 0 contracts20¢ price bucket: 0 contracts25¢ price bucket: 9,913 contracts30¢ price bucket: 0 contracts35¢ price bucket: 0 contracts40¢ price bucket: 0 contracts45¢ price bucket: 60,305 contracts50¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 95,211 contracts55¢ price bucket: 0 contracts60¢ price bucket: 71,989 contracts65¢ price bucket: 0 contracts70¢ price bucket: 0 contracts75¢ price bucket: 29,485 contracts80¢ price bucket: 70,859 contracts85¢ current price bucket: 79,253 contracts90¢ price bucket: 0 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.

Crypto reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

22% GAVE BACK
78% CONTINUED
138unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
22%partial reversion rate
3%avg move given back