LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-11T13:06
Status
Not trading advice Feedback

Overview / Crypto / Contract detail

BTC > $64,249.99

Settles Jul 11, 12AM ET·BTC ladder / hourly

36¢current price
-0.68σoverextension z · high
30¢crowd cost basis
+6¢distance from crowd basis
0.95×vol vs peers
176,88124h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Crypto cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

0.95×Vol vs comparable peers
0.1983Category median logit vol/hr
30¢Crowd cost basis
57%Cost-basis conviction
138Similar category unusual moves
22%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~29h ago~14h agolatestCrowd basis 30¢~29h before latest: 32.0¢~28h before latest: 40.0¢~27h before latest: 41.0¢~26h before latest: 44.0¢~25h before latest: 38.0¢~24h before latest: 40.0¢~23h before latest: 38.0¢~22h before latest: 38.0¢~21h before latest: 43.0¢~20h before latest: 38.0¢~19h before latest: 42.0¢~18h before latest: 44.0¢~17h before latest: 40.0¢~16h before latest: 44.0¢~15h before latest: 46.0¢~14h before latest: 42.0¢~13h before latest: 44.0¢~12h before latest: 44.0¢~11h before latest: 40.0¢~10h before latest: 46.0¢~9h before latest: 48.0¢~8h before latest: 48.0¢~7h before latest: 44.0¢~6h before latest: 36.0¢~5h before latest: 37.0¢~4h before latest: 38.0¢~3h before latest: 38.0¢~2h before latest: 38.0¢~1h before latest: 40.0¢latest: 32.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 57% · profiled volume 99,423 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.09,49518,99028,48637,9810¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ price bucket: 0 contracts20¢ price bucket: 0 contracts25¢ price bucket: 0 contracts30¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 37,981 contracts35¢ current price bucket: 19,066 contracts40¢ price bucket: 21,998 contracts45¢ price bucket: 15,626 contracts50¢ price bucket: 4,752 contracts55¢ price bucket: 0 contracts60¢ price bucket: 0 contracts65¢ price bucket: 0 contracts70¢ price bucket: 0 contracts75¢ price bucket: 0 contracts80¢ price bucket: 0 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ price bucket: 0 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.

Crypto reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

22% GAVE BACK
78% CONTINUED
138unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
22%partial reversion rate
3%avg move given back