Overview / Politics / Contract detail
Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns this year?
Closes in 174d·Congresstrad
18¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
5¢crowd cost basis
+12¢distance from crowd basis
1.6×vol vs peers
10124h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Politics cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
1.6×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0373Category median logit vol/hr
5¢Crowd cost basis
70%Cost-basis conviction
36Similar category unusual moves
44%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 70% · profiled volume 333 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Politics reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
36unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
44%partial reversion rate
16%avg move given back