Overview / Sports / Contract detail
Will Jasper Philipsen win Stage 8 in the 2026 Tour de France?
Closes in 29d·Other sports
50¢current price
+12.00σoverextension z · medium
15¢crowd cost basis
+36¢distance from crowd basis
3.8×vol vs peers
30124h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
3.8×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0576Category median logit vol/hr
15¢Crowd cost basis
75%Cost-basis conviction
6351Similar category unusual moves
40%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 75% · profiled volume 256 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Sports reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
6351unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
40%partial reversion rate
15%avg move given back