LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-11T13:06
Status
Not trading advice Feedback

Overview / Sports / Contract detail

Will Nigma Galaxy win map 1 in the Nigma Galaxy vs. PlayTime match?

Live event · 1.6h since start·Other sports

16¢current price
-12.00σoverextension z · medium
60¢crowd cost basis
-44¢distance from crowd basis
4.95×vol vs peers
4,83224h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

4.95×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0576Category median logit vol/hr
60¢Crowd cost basis
50%Cost-basis conviction
6351Similar category unusual moves
40%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~29h ago~14h agolatestCrowd basis 60¢~29h before latest: 59.0¢~28h before latest: 59.0¢~27h before latest: 59.0¢~26h before latest: 59.0¢~25h before latest: 59.0¢~24h before latest: 59.0¢~23h before latest: 59.0¢~22h before latest: 59.0¢~21h before latest: 60.0¢~20h before latest: 59.0¢~19h before latest: 59.0¢~18h before latest: 60.0¢~17h before latest: 60.0¢~16h before latest: 60.0¢~15h before latest: 60.0¢~14h before latest: 60.0¢~13h before latest: 60.0¢~12h before latest: 60.0¢~11h before latest: 60.0¢~10h before latest: 60.0¢~9h before latest: 60.0¢~8h before latest: 60.0¢~7h before latest: 60.0¢~6h before latest: 60.0¢~5h before latest: 60.0¢~4h before latest: 60.0¢~3h before latest: 62.0¢~2h before latest: 64.0¢~1h before latest: 61.0¢latest: 34.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 50% · profiled volume 5,125 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.05541,1071,6602,2140¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ current price bucket: 292 contracts20¢ price bucket: 0 contracts25¢ price bucket: 0 contracts30¢ price bucket: 0 contracts35¢ price bucket: 711 contracts40¢ price bucket: 866 contracts45¢ price bucket: 510 contracts50¢ price bucket: 187 contracts55¢ price bucket: 288 contracts60¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 2,214 contracts65¢ price bucket: 57 contracts70¢ price bucket: 0 contracts75¢ price bucket: 0 contracts80¢ price bucket: 0 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ price bucket: 0 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.

Sports reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

40% GAVE BACK
60% CONTINUED
6351unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
40%partial reversion rate
15%avg move given back