Overview / Economics / Contract detail
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting?
Settles Jul 29, 2PM ET·Feddecision
14¢current price
+2.30σoverextension z · high
20¢crowd cost basis
-6¢distance from crowd basis
0.63×vol vs peers
118,37524h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Economics cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
0.63×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0432Category median logit vol/hr
20¢Crowd cost basis
81%Cost-basis conviction
13Similar category unusual moves
15%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 81% · profiled volume 645,749 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Economics reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
13unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
15%partial reversion rate
-27%avg move given backnet: kept extending