Overview / Science and Technology / Contract detail
Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?
Closes in 174d
80¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
75¢crowd cost basis
+6¢distance from crowd basis
12.93×vol vs peers
70624h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Science and Technology cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
12.93×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0466Category median logit vol/hr
75¢Crowd cost basis
52%Cost-basis conviction
4Similar category unusual moves
75%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 52% · profiled volume 709 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Science and Technology reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
BUILDING SAMPLE · n=44unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
75%partial reversion rate
113%avg move given back