Overview / Climate and Weather / Contract detail
Will Hernan be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026?
Settles Dec 1, 12AM ET·Firsthurrica
4¢current price
+0.27σoverextension z · high
5¢crowd cost basis
-0¢distance from crowd basis
31.95×vol vs peers
52524h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Climate and Weather cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
31.95×Vol vs comparable peers
0.3143Category median logit vol/hr
5¢Crowd cost basis
84%Cost-basis conviction
995Similar category unusual moves
54%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 84% · profiled volume 626 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Climate and Weather reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
995unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
54%partial reversion rate
16%avg move given back