Overview / Politics / Contract detail
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 80 after July 6, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027?
Settles Jan 1, 12AM ET·Hormuzavg
18¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
25¢crowd cost basis
-6¢distance from crowd basis
4.36×vol vs peers
3,41424h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Politics cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
4.36×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0373Category median logit vol/hr
25¢Crowd cost basis
100%Cost-basis conviction
36Similar category unusual moves
44%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 100% · profiled volume 3,414 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Politics reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
36unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
44%partial reversion rate
16%avg move given back