Overview / Politics / Contract detail
Will any member of the Cabinet (defined as: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, White House Chief of Staff) be impeached before Jan 1, 2027?
Settles Jan 1, 12AM ET·Impeachcabin
6¢current price
+0.00σoverextension z · low
5¢crowd cost basis
+1¢distance from crowd basis
1.45×vol vs peers
62124h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Politics cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
1.45×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0373Category median logit vol/hr
5¢Crowd cost basis
100%Cost-basis conviction
36Similar category unusual moves
44%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 100% · profiled volume 745 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Politics reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
36unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
44%partial reversion rate
16%avg move given back