LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-11T13:06
Status
Not trading advice Feedback

Overview / Sports / Contract detail

Will Berkieta / Bojarski win the Lagerbohm / Wygona vs Berkieta / Bojarski: M15 Lodz Final match?

Live event · 9.1h since start·Other sports

82¢current price
overextension z · insufficient
75¢crowd cost basis
+7¢distance from crowd basis
30.97×vol vs peers
1,84824h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

30.97×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0576Category median logit vol/hr
75¢Crowd cost basis
94%Cost-basis conviction
6351Similar category unusual moves
40%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~7h ago~3h agolatestCrowd basis 75¢~7h before latest: 54.0¢~6h before latest: 40.0¢~5h before latest: 32.0¢~4h before latest: 34.0¢~3h before latest: 60.0¢~2h before latest: 48.0¢~1h before latest: 74.0¢latest: 82.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 94% · profiled volume 2,310 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.04288561,2831,7110¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ price bucket: 0 contracts20¢ price bucket: 0 contracts25¢ price bucket: 0 contracts30¢ price bucket: 0 contracts35¢ price bucket: 36 contracts40¢ price bucket: 0 contracts45¢ price bucket: 0 contracts50¢ price bucket: 44 contracts55¢ price bucket: 0 contracts60¢ price bucket: 53 contracts65¢ price bucket: 0 contracts70¢ price bucket: 0 contracts75¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 1,711 contracts80¢ current price bucket: 466 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ price bucket: 0 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.

Sports reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

40% GAVE BACK
60% CONTINUED
6351unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
40%partial reversion rate
15%avg move given back