Overview / Sports / Contract detail
Will Jakub Nicod win the Nicod vs Juan Mano: M25 The Hague Semifinal match?
Live event · 9.1h since start·Other sports
36¢current price
-12.00σoverextension z · medium
75¢crowd cost basis
-40¢distance from crowd basis
7.44×vol vs peers
197,81224h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
7.44×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0576Category median logit vol/hr
75¢Crowd cost basis
36%Cost-basis conviction
6351Similar category unusual moves
40%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 36% · profiled volume 276,070 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Sports reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
6351unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
40%partial reversion rate
15%avg move given back