LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-11T13:06
Status
Not trading advice Feedback

Overview / Sports / Contract detail

Will Alina Tikhonova win the Kalyakina vs Tikhonova: W15 Luan Semifinal match?

Live event · 9.1h since start·Other sports

86¢current price
+12.00σoverextension z · medium
85¢crowd cost basis
+0¢distance from crowd basis
9.83×vol vs peers
81,70824h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

9.83×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0576Category median logit vol/hr
85¢Crowd cost basis
47%Cost-basis conviction
6351Similar category unusual moves
40%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~29h ago~14h agolatestCrowd basis 85¢~29h before latest: 62.0¢~28h before latest: 62.0¢~27h before latest: 62.0¢~26h before latest: 63.0¢~25h before latest: 62.0¢~24h before latest: 62.0¢~23h before latest: 62.0¢~22h before latest: 62.0¢~21h before latest: 62.0¢~20h before latest: 62.0¢~19h before latest: 62.0¢~18h before latest: 62.0¢~17h before latest: 62.0¢~16h before latest: 62.0¢~15h before latest: 62.0¢~14h before latest: 63.0¢~13h before latest: 64.0¢~12h before latest: 65.0¢~11h before latest: 66.0¢~10h before latest: 66.0¢~9h before latest: 66.0¢~8h before latest: 66.0¢~7h before latest: 65.0¢~6h before latest: 73.0¢~5h before latest: 88.0¢~4h before latest: 78.0¢~3h before latest: 64.0¢~2h before latest: 54.0¢~1h before latest: 82.0¢latest: 86.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 47% · profiled volume 115,851 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.07,60715,21422,82130,4280¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ price bucket: 0 contracts20¢ price bucket: 0 contracts25¢ price bucket: 0 contracts30¢ price bucket: 0 contracts35¢ price bucket: 0 contracts40¢ price bucket: 2,824 contracts45¢ price bucket: 0 contracts50¢ price bucket: 9,507 contracts55¢ price bucket: 2,356 contracts60¢ price bucket: 10,944 contracts65¢ price bucket: 16,822 contracts70¢ price bucket: 4,503 contracts75¢ price bucket: 14,593 contracts80¢ price bucket: 8,091 contracts85¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 30,428 contracts90¢ price bucket: 15,783 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.

Sports reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

40% GAVE BACK
60% CONTINUED
6351unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
40%partial reversion rate
15%avg move given back