Overview / Entertainment / Contract detail
Will Tierra and KC win Love Island USA Season 8?
Settles Aug 31, 12AM ET·Liusacouple
10¢current price
+0.23σoverextension z · high
10¢crowd cost basis
+0¢distance from crowd basis
3.74×vol vs peers
124,98224h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Entertainment cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
3.74×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0601Category median logit vol/hr
10¢Crowd cost basis
96%Cost-basis conviction
2Similar category unusual moves
50%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 96% · profiled volume 659,771 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Entertainment reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
BUILDING SAMPLE · n=22unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
50%partial reversion rate
21%avg move given back