LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-11T13:06
Status
Not trading advice Feedback

Overview / Entertainment / Contract detail

Will Julia and Lorenzo finish 2 Place in Love Island UK Season 13?

Settles Aug 31, 12AM ET·Loveislanduk

current price
-0.51σoverextension z · high
crowd cost basis
-2¢distance from crowd basis
52.61×vol vs peers
75424h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Entertainment cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

52.61×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0488Category median logit vol/hr
Crowd cost basis
100%Cost-basis conviction
1292Similar category unusual moves
29%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~29h ago~14h agolatestCrowd basis 5¢~29h before latest: 48.0¢~28h before latest: 48.0¢~27h before latest: 48.0¢~26h before latest: 8.0¢~25h before latest: 8.0¢~24h before latest: 48.0¢~23h before latest: 48.0¢~22h before latest: 48.0¢~21h before latest: 48.0¢~20h before latest: 48.0¢~19h before latest: 48.0¢~18h before latest: 48.0¢~17h before latest: 48.0¢~16h before latest: 48.0¢~15h before latest: 48.0¢~14h before latest: 48.0¢~13h before latest: 48.0¢~12h before latest: 48.0¢~11h before latest: 48.0¢~10h before latest: 48.0¢~9h before latest: 48.0¢~8h before latest: 48.0¢~7h before latest: 48.0¢~6h before latest: 48.0¢~5h before latest: 48.0¢~4h before latest: 48.0¢~3h before latest: 48.0¢~2h before latest: 48.0¢~1h before latest: 4.0¢latest: 4.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 100% · profiled volume 335 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.0591181762350¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 235 contracts10¢ price bucket: 100 contracts15¢ price bucket: 0 contracts20¢ price bucket: 0 contracts25¢ price bucket: 0 contracts30¢ price bucket: 0 contracts35¢ price bucket: 0 contracts40¢ price bucket: 0 contracts45¢ price bucket: 0 contracts50¢ price bucket: 0 contracts55¢ price bucket: 0 contracts60¢ price bucket: 0 contracts65¢ price bucket: 0 contracts70¢ price bucket: 0 contracts75¢ price bucket: 0 contracts80¢ price bucket: 0 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ price bucket: 0 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.

Entertainment reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

29% GAVE BACK
71% CONTINUED
1292unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
29%partial reversion rate
8%avg move given back