Overview / Entertainment / Contract detail
Will Melanie and Sincere finish in the Top 3 Couples in Love Island USA Season 8?
Settles Aug 31, 12AM ET·Loveislandus
34¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
75¢crowd cost basis
-41¢distance from crowd basis
3.89×vol vs peers
13,85024h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Entertainment cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
3.89×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0601Category median logit vol/hr
75¢Crowd cost basis
56%Cost-basis conviction
2Similar category unusual moves
50%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 56% · profiled volume 37,326 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Entertainment reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
BUILDING SAMPLE · n=22unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
50%partial reversion rate
21%avg move given back