Overview / Climate and Weather / Contract detail
Will the minimum temperature be >70° on Jul 11, 2026?
Settles Jul 11, 12AM ET·Lowtmin
90¢current price
+1.78σoverextension z · high
20¢crowd cost basis
+70¢distance from crowd basis
2.32×vol vs peers
1,78624h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Climate and Weather cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
2.32×Vol vs comparable peers
0.3143Category median logit vol/hr
20¢Crowd cost basis
33%Cost-basis conviction
995Similar category unusual moves
54%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 33% · profiled volume 1,448 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Climate and Weather reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
995unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
54%partial reversion rate
16%avg move given back