LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-11T13:06
Status
Not trading advice Feedback

Overview / Sports / Contract detail

Will Akie Iwai lead at the end of Round 3 in the The Amundi Evian Championship?

Closes in 14d·Other sports

88¢current price
overextension z · insufficient
crowd cost basis
distance from crowd basis
21.71×vol vs peers
10024h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

21.71×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0576Category median logit vol/hr
Crowd cost basis
6351Similar category unusual moves
40%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~29h ago~14h agolatest~29h before latest: 25.0¢~28h before latest: 25.0¢~27h before latest: 25.0¢~26h before latest: 25.0¢~25h before latest: 25.0¢~24h before latest: 25.0¢~23h before latest: 25.0¢~22h before latest: 25.0¢~21h before latest: 25.0¢~20h before latest: 25.0¢~19h before latest: 25.0¢~18h before latest: 25.0¢~17h before latest: 25.0¢~16h before latest: 25.0¢~15h before latest: 25.0¢~14h before latest: 25.0¢~13h before latest: 25.0¢~12h before latest: 25.0¢~11h before latest: 25.0¢~10h before latest: 25.0¢~9h before latest: 26.0¢~8h before latest: 25.0¢~7h before latest: 25.0¢~6h before latest: 25.0¢~5h before latest: 2.0¢~4h before latest: 2.0¢~3h before latest: 2.0¢~2h before latest: 2.0¢~1h before latest: 2.0¢latest: 2.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Sports reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

40% GAVE BACK
60% CONTINUED
6351unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
40%partial reversion rate
15%avg move given back