Overview / Elections / Contract detail
Will Patrick Roath be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?
Closes in 480d·Maprimary
40¢current price
-12.00σoverextension z · medium
50¢crowd cost basis
-10¢distance from crowd basis
4.5×vol vs peers
73524h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Elections cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
4.5×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0185Category median logit vol/hr
50¢Crowd cost basis
88%Cost-basis conviction
948Similar category unusual moves
28%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 88% · profiled volume 855 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Elections reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
948unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
28%partial reversion rate
-8%avg move given backnet: kept extending