LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-11T01:48
Status
Not trading advice Feedback

Overview / Sports / Contract detail

Will Detroit win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?

Closes in 843d·MLB

current price
overextension z · insufficient
crowd cost basis
+4¢distance from crowd basis
22.37×vol vs peers
51,74324h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

22.37×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0486Category median logit vol/hr
Crowd cost basis
100%Cost-basis conviction
248Similar category unusual moves
44%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~10h ago~5h agolatestCrowd basis 0¢~10h before latest: 1.0¢~9h before latest: 2.0¢~8h before latest: 2.0¢~7h before latest: 2.0¢~6h before latest: 2.0¢~5h before latest: 2.0¢~4h before latest: 2.0¢~3h before latest: 2.0¢~2h before latest: 2.0¢~1h before latest: 2.0¢latest: 4.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 100% · profiled volume 77,710 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.018,80237,60556,40875,2100¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 75,210 contracts5¢ current price bucket: 2,500 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ price bucket: 0 contracts20¢ price bucket: 0 contracts25¢ price bucket: 0 contracts30¢ price bucket: 0 contracts35¢ price bucket: 0 contracts40¢ price bucket: 0 contracts45¢ price bucket: 0 contracts50¢ price bucket: 0 contracts55¢ price bucket: 0 contracts60¢ price bucket: 0 contracts65¢ price bucket: 0 contracts70¢ price bucket: 0 contracts75¢ price bucket: 0 contracts80¢ price bucket: 0 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ price bucket: 0 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.

Sports reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

44% GAVE BACK
56% CONTINUED
248unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
44%partial reversion rate
8%avg move given back