Overview / Sports / Contract detail
Will Munetaka Murakami be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
Closes in 4d·MLB
24¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
50¢crowd cost basis
-26¢distance from crowd basis
3.85×vol vs peers
1,13324h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
3.85×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0522Category median logit vol/hr
50¢Crowd cost basis
56%Cost-basis conviction
262Similar category unusual moves
44%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 56% · profiled volume 2,110 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Sports reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
262unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
44%partial reversion rate
9%avg move given back