LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-11T13:06
Status
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Overview / Mentions / Contract detail

What will the announcers say during Red Sox vs Mets Professional Baseball Game?

Settles Jul 10, 12AM ET·Mlbmention

96¢current price
overextension z · insufficient
90¢crowd cost basis
+6¢distance from crowd basis
68.21×vol vs peers
3,06824h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Mentions cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

68.21×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0755Category median logit vol/hr
90¢Crowd cost basis
69%Cost-basis conviction
507Similar category unusual moves
63%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~29h ago~14h agolatestCrowd basis 90¢~29h before latest: 36.0¢~28h before latest: 40.0¢~27h before latest: 38.0¢~26h before latest: 46.0¢~25h before latest: 50.0¢~24h before latest: 46.0¢~23h before latest: 45.0¢~22h before latest: 70.0¢~21h before latest: 72.0¢~20h before latest: 49.0¢~19h before latest: 50.0¢~18h before latest: 50.0¢~17h before latest: 36.0¢~16h before latest: 33.0¢~15h before latest: 13.0¢~14h before latest: 35.0¢~13h before latest: 50.0¢~12h before latest: 46.0¢~11h before latest: 24.0¢~10h before latest: 16.0¢~9h before latest: 1.0¢~8h before latest: 1.0¢~7h before latest: 5.0¢~6h before latest: 6.0¢~5h before latest: 88.0¢~4h before latest: 92.0¢~3h before latest: 94.0¢~2h before latest: 90.0¢~1h before latest: 92.0¢latest: 96.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 69% · profiled volume 3,173 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.05171,0341,5522,0690¢ price bucket: 82 contracts5¢ price bucket: 93 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ price bucket: 3 contracts20¢ price bucket: 0 contracts25¢ price bucket: 3 contracts30¢ price bucket: 0 contracts35¢ price bucket: 10 contracts40¢ price bucket: 417 contracts45¢ price bucket: 18 contracts50¢ price bucket: 165 contracts55¢ price bucket: 118 contracts60¢ price bucket: 0 contracts65¢ price bucket: 0 contracts70¢ price bucket: 78 contracts75¢ price bucket: 0 contracts80¢ price bucket: 0 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 2,069 contracts95¢ current price bucket: 117 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.

Mentions reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

63% GAVE BACK
37% CONTINUED
507unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
63%partial reversion rate
50%avg move given back