Overview / Sports / Contract detail
Washington wins by over 2.5 runs?
Live event · 3.1h since start·MLB spread
34¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
10¢crowd cost basis
+24¢distance from crowd basis
14.79×vol vs peers
2,03624h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
14.79×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0486Category median logit vol/hr
10¢Crowd cost basis
67%Cost-basis conviction
248Similar category unusual moves
44%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 67% · profiled volume 2,155 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Sports reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
248unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
44%partial reversion rate
8%avg move given back