Overview / Sports / Contract detail
Will A's win at least 75 games this season?
Closes in 120d·MLB
34¢current price
-4.62σoverextension z · low
40¢crowd cost basis
-6¢distance from crowd basis
2.19×vol vs peers
13524h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
2.19×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0486Category median logit vol/hr
40¢Crowd cost basis
61%Cost-basis conviction
248Similar category unusual moves
44%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 61% · profiled volume 2,159 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Sports reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
248unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
44%partial reversion rate
8%avg move given back