Overview / Sports / Contract detail
Will Boston win at least 80 games this season?
Closes in 120d·MLB
48¢current price
+0.02σoverextension z · high
45¢crowd cost basis
+2¢distance from crowd basis
20.26×vol vs peers
68724h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
20.26×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0576Category median logit vol/hr
45¢Crowd cost basis
71%Cost-basis conviction
6351Similar category unusual moves
40%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 71% · profiled volume 1,996 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Sports reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
6351unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
40%partial reversion rate
15%avg move given back