Overview / Sports / Contract detail
Will Marco Bezzecchi be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion?
Closes in 156d·Other sports
6¢current price
-12.00σoverextension z · medium
10¢crowd cost basis
-4¢distance from crowd basis
13.12×vol vs peers
88624h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
13.12×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0576Category median logit vol/hr
10¢Crowd cost basis
60%Cost-basis conviction
6351Similar category unusual moves
40%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 60% · profiled volume 1,110 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Sports reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
6351unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
40%partial reversion rate
15%avg move given back