LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-11T01:48
Status
Not trading advice Feedback

Overview / Sports / Contract detail

Will Memphis win the Chicago vs Memphis Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 10, 2026?

Live event · 21.8h since start·NBA

72¢current price
overextension z · insufficient
90¢crowd cost basis
-18¢distance from crowd basis
44.31×vol vs peers
242,33424h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

44.31×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0486Category median logit vol/hr
90¢Crowd cost basis
94%Cost-basis conviction
248Similar category unusual moves
44%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~7h ago~3h agolatestCrowd basis 90¢~7h before latest: 48.0¢~6h before latest: 71.0¢~5h before latest: 71.0¢~4h before latest: 60.0¢~3h before latest: 68.0¢~2h before latest: 91.0¢~1h before latest: 92.0¢latest: 72.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 94% · profiled volume 272,618 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.063,748127,496191,243254,9910¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ price bucket: 0 contracts20¢ price bucket: 0 contracts25¢ price bucket: 0 contracts30¢ price bucket: 0 contracts35¢ price bucket: 0 contracts40¢ price bucket: 0 contracts45¢ price bucket: 0 contracts50¢ price bucket: 0 contracts55¢ price bucket: 0 contracts60¢ price bucket: 0 contracts65¢ price bucket: 0 contracts70¢ current price bucket: 17,627 contracts75¢ price bucket: 0 contracts80¢ price bucket: 0 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 254,991 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.

Sports reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

44% GAVE BACK
56% CONTINUED
248unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
44%partial reversion rate
8%avg move given back