Overview / Sports / Contract detail
Memphis wins by over 15.5 points?
Live event · 33.1h since start·NBA
19¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
10¢crowd cost basis
+9¢distance from crowd basis
36.7×vol vs peers
1,39324h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
36.7×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0576Category median logit vol/hr
10¢Crowd cost basis
78%Cost-basis conviction
6351Similar category unusual moves
40%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 78% · profiled volume 98 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Sports reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
6351unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
40%partial reversion rate
15%avg move given back