Overview / Sports / Contract detail
Will any Source Agency announce that LeBron James is joining any NBA team after Issuance and before Aug 23, 2026
Closes in 43d·NBA
93¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
95¢crowd cost basis
-2¢distance from crowd basis
17.13×vol vs peers
47224h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
17.13×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0486Category median logit vol/hr
95¢Crowd cost basis
100%Cost-basis conviction
248Similar category unusual moves
44%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 100% · profiled volume 472 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Sports reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
248unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
44%partial reversion rate
8%avg move given back