Overview / Politics / Contract detail
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor?
Closes in 925d·Nextlaborsec
95¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
90¢crowd cost basis
+5¢distance from crowd basis
14.67×vol vs peers
2,52324h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Politics cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
14.67×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0334Category median logit vol/hr
90¢Crowd cost basis
100%Cost-basis conviction
30Similar category unusual moves
40%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 100% · profiled volume 3,033 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Politics reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
30unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
40%partial reversion rate
15%avg move given back