LT
Logit Terminal Research
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi (licensed)
Last updated2026-07-10T03:33
Status
Not trading advice

Overview / Sports / Contract detail

What will be LeBron James's next team?

Closes in 105d·Other sports

64¢current price
+1.96σoverextension z · high
60¢crowd cost basis
+4¢distance from crowd basis
1.24×vol vs peers
924,73624h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

1.24×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0522Category median logit vol/hr
60¢Crowd cost basis
63%Cost-basis conviction
262Similar category unusual moves
44%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~29h ago~14h agolatestCrowd basis 60¢~29h before latest: 57.0¢~28h before latest: 56.0¢~27h before latest: 56.0¢~26h before latest: 56.0¢~25h before latest: 56.0¢~24h before latest: 56.0¢~23h before latest: 56.0¢~22h before latest: 56.0¢~21h before latest: 54.0¢~20h before latest: 54.0¢~19h before latest: 54.0¢~18h before latest: 58.0¢~17h before latest: 56.0¢~16h before latest: 56.0¢~15h before latest: 54.0¢~14h before latest: 54.0¢~13h before latest: 52.0¢~12h before latest: 56.0¢~11h before latest: 52.0¢~10h before latest: 54.0¢~9h before latest: 46.0¢~8h before latest: 46.0¢~7h before latest: 48.0¢~6h before latest: 46.0¢~5h before latest: 46.0¢~4h before latest: 46.0¢~3h before latest: 46.0¢~2h before latest: 60.0¢~1h before latest: 62.0¢latest: 64.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 63% · profiled volume 2,857,309 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.0273,675547,350821,0251,094,7000¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ price bucket: 0 contracts20¢ price bucket: 0 contracts25¢ price bucket: 0 contracts30¢ price bucket: 0 contracts35¢ price bucket: 0 contracts40¢ price bucket: 0 contracts45¢ price bucket: 706,998 contracts50¢ price bucket: 345,266 contracts55¢ price bucket: 649,796 contracts60¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 1,094,700 contracts65¢ current price bucket: 60,549 contracts70¢ price bucket: 0 contracts75¢ price bucket: 0 contracts80¢ price bucket: 0 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ price bucket: 0 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.

Sports reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

44% GAVE BACK
56% CONTINUED
262unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
44%partial reversion rate
9%avg move given back