Overview / Sports / Contract detail
Will J.J. Spaun beat Adam Scott in the 3rd round of the Genesis Scottish Open?
Closes in 14d·Golf
92¢current price
+4.55σoverextension z · high
50¢crowd cost basis
+42¢distance from crowd basis
7.4×vol vs peers
98124h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
7.4×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0576Category median logit vol/hr
50¢Crowd cost basis
64%Cost-basis conviction
6351Similar category unusual moves
40%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 64% · profiled volume 678 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Sports reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
6351unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
40%partial reversion rate
15%avg move given back