Overview / Elections / Contract detail
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner remains the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine before Aug 1, 2026?
Closes in 22d·Platnerrepla
4¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
5¢crowd cost basis
-0¢distance from crowd basis
3.3×vol vs peers
283,04324h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Elections cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
3.3×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0248Category median logit vol/hr
5¢Crowd cost basis
100%Cost-basis conviction
45Similar category unusual moves
24%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 100% · profiled volume 305,607 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Elections reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
45unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
24%partial reversion rate
-12%avg move given backnet: kept extending