Overview / Climate and Weather / Contract detail
Rain in Dallas in Jul 2026?
Closes in 21d·Raindalm
70¢current price
-7.40σoverextension z · low
75¢crowd cost basis
-5¢distance from crowd basis
5.16×vol vs peers
1,16324h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Climate and Weather cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
5.16×Vol vs comparable peers
0.1546Category median logit vol/hr
75¢Crowd cost basis
100%Cost-basis conviction
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 100% · profiled volume 1,293 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.