Overview / Climate and Weather / Contract detail
Will it **rain** in New York City on Friday?
Settles Jul 10, 12AM ET·Rainnyc
8¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
65¢crowd cost basis
-57¢distance from crowd basis
2.08×vol vs peers
2,08424h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Climate and Weather cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
2.08×Vol vs comparable peers
0.3143Category median logit vol/hr
65¢Crowd cost basis
33%Cost-basis conviction
995Similar category unusual moves
54%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 33% · profiled volume 2,528 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Climate and Weather reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
995unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
54%partial reversion rate
16%avg move given back