Overview / Entertainment / Contract detail
Will Justin Bieber be #1 on the Any Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart in July 2026?
Settles Aug 1, 12AM ET·Ranklistsong
34¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
65¢crowd cost basis
-30¢distance from crowd basis
5.14×vol vs peers
1,30124h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Entertainment cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
5.14×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0601Category median logit vol/hr
65¢Crowd cost basis
62%Cost-basis conviction
2Similar category unusual moves
50%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 62% · profiled volume 4,479 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Entertainment reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
BUILDING SAMPLE · n=22unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
50%partial reversion rate
21%avg move given back