LT
Logit Terminal Research
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi (licensed)
Last updated2026-07-10T03:33
Status
Not trading advice

Overview / Sports / Contract detail

Washington Freedom vs Los Angeles Knight Riders Winner?

Live event · 3.1h since start·Other sports

63¢current price
overextension z · insufficient
55¢crowd cost basis
+8¢distance from crowd basis
9.05×vol vs peers
1,639,33424h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

9.05×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0522Category median logit vol/hr
55¢Crowd cost basis
47%Cost-basis conviction
262Similar category unusual moves
44%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~6h ago~3h agolatestCrowd basis 55¢~6h before latest: 46.0¢~5h before latest: 46.0¢~4h before latest: 47.0¢~3h before latest: 47.0¢~2h before latest: 56.0¢~1h before latest: 90.0¢latest: 63.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 47% · profiled volume 1,847,243 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.0217,371434,742652,113869,4840¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ price bucket: 0 contracts20¢ price bucket: 0 contracts25¢ price bucket: 0 contracts30¢ price bucket: 0 contracts35¢ price bucket: 0 contracts40¢ price bucket: 0 contracts45¢ price bucket: 350 contracts50¢ price bucket: 0 contracts55¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 869,484 contracts60¢ price bucket: 0 contracts65¢ current price bucket: 428,804 contracts70¢ price bucket: 0 contracts75¢ price bucket: 0 contracts80¢ price bucket: 0 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ price bucket: 548,605 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.

Sports reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

44% GAVE BACK
56% CONTINUED
262unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
44%partial reversion rate
9%avg move given back