LT
Logit Terminal Research
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi (licensed)
Last updated2026-07-10T03:33
Status—
Not trading advice

Overview / Politics / Contract detail

Will Donald J. Trump attend The 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?

Closes in 10d·Trumpattend

91¢current price
-0.91σoverextension z · high
90¢crowd cost basis
+1¢distance from crowd basis
0.66×vol vs peers
106,48824h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Politics cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

0.66×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0334Category median logit vol/hr
90¢Crowd cost basis
100%Cost-basis conviction
30Similar category unusual moves
40%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢~29h ago~14h agolatestCrowd basis 90¢~29h before latest: 90.0¢~28h before latest: 90.0¢~27h before latest: 90.0¢~26h before latest: 90.0¢~25h before latest: 90.0¢~24h before latest: 90.0¢~23h before latest: 90.0¢~22h before latest: 90.0¢~21h before latest: 90.0¢~20h before latest: 90.0¢~19h before latest: 90.0¢~18h before latest: 90.0¢~17h before latest: 90.0¢~16h before latest: 90.0¢~15h before latest: 90.0¢~14h before latest: 90.0¢~13h before latest: 90.0¢~12h before latest: 90.0¢~11h before latest: 90.0¢~10h before latest: 90.0¢~9h before latest: 90.0¢~8h before latest: 90.0¢~7h before latest: 90.0¢~6h before latest: 90.0¢~5h before latest: 90.0¢~4h before latest: 90.0¢~3h before latest: 90.0¢~2h before latest: 92.0¢~1h before latest: 90.0¢latest: 91.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 100% · profiled volume 428,184 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.0107,046214,092321,138428,1840¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ price bucket: 0 contracts20¢ price bucket: 0 contracts25¢ price bucket: 0 contracts30¢ price bucket: 0 contracts35¢ price bucket: 0 contracts40¢ price bucket: 0 contracts45¢ price bucket: 0 contracts50¢ price bucket: 0 contracts55¢ price bucket: 0 contracts60¢ price bucket: 0 contracts65¢ price bucket: 0 contracts70¢ price bucket: 0 contracts75¢ price bucket: 0 contracts80¢ price bucket: 0 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 428,184 contracts95¢ price bucket: 0 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts0¢10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.

Politics reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

40% GAVE BACK
60% CONTINUED
30unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
40%partial reversion rate
15%avg move given back