Overview / Politics / Contract detail
Will the number of distinct days with a Getty Images editorial photo of Trump be exactly 6 between Jul 6, 2026 and Jul 12, 2026?
Settles Jul 12, 12AM ET·Trumpphoto
23¢current price
—overextension z · insufficient
30¢crowd cost basis
-7¢distance from crowd basis
0.58×vol vs peers
2,34724h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Politics cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
0.58×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0373Category median logit vol/hr
30¢Crowd cost basis
95%Cost-basis conviction
36Similar category unusual moves
44%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 95% · profiled volume 2,483 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Politics reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
36unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
44%partial reversion rate
16%avg move given back