Overview / Mentions / Contract detail
Will Trump say "Google / GOOG / GOOGL" before Aug 1, 2026?
Settles Aug 1, 12AM ET·Trumpsaycomp
51¢current price
-0.02σoverextension z · high
20¢crowd cost basis
+31¢distance from crowd basis
32.16×vol vs peers
53,48224h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Mentions cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
32.16×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0755Category median logit vol/hr
20¢Crowd cost basis
41%Cost-basis conviction
507Similar category unusual moves
63%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 41% · profiled volume 53,941 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Mentions reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
507unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
63%partial reversion rate
50%avg move given back