LT
Logit Terminal PUBLIC BETA
Probability-native market analytics
Data sourceKalshi data
Last updated2026-07-11T13:06
Status
Not trading advice Feedback

Overview / Financials / Contract detail

Will the S&P/TSX Composite Index be at least 37,000 in 2026?

Settles Dec 31, 12AM ET

46¢current price
-0.35σoverextension z · high
80¢crowd cost basis
-34¢distance from crowd basis
46.1×vol vs peers
2,28924h contracts

Market context

Comparisons against the broader Financials cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.

46.1×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0475Category median logit vol/hr
80¢Crowd cost basis
66%Cost-basis conviction
1046Similar category unusual moves
38%Partial reversion base rate

Price History

Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.

Price history, fixed 0 to 100 cent scale. Hover points for values.25¢50¢75¢100¢~29h ago~14h agolatestCrowd basis 80¢~29h before latest: 94.0¢~28h before latest: 94.0¢~27h before latest: 94.0¢~26h before latest: 94.0¢~25h before latest: 94.0¢~24h before latest: 94.0¢~23h before latest: 94.0¢~22h before latest: 94.0¢~21h before latest: 94.0¢~20h before latest: 94.0¢~19h before latest: 94.0¢~18h before latest: 94.0¢~17h before latest: 78.0¢~16h before latest: 84.0¢~15h before latest: 86.0¢~14h before latest: 45.0¢~13h before latest: 83.0¢~12h before latest: 62.0¢~11h before latest: 75.0¢~10h before latest: 81.0¢~9h before latest: 70.0¢~8h before latest: 70.0¢~7h before latest: 70.0¢~6h before latest: 72.0¢~5h before latest: 70.0¢~4h before latest: 70.0¢~3h before latest: 66.0¢~2h before latest: 66.0¢~1h before latest: 54.0¢latest: 52.0¢Approx. collected snapshot time

Volume-at-price profile

Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 66% · profiled volume 2,294 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.

Volume-at-price profile by 5 cent bucket. Hover bars for bucket volumes.02995988981,1970¢ price bucket: 0 contracts5¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢ price bucket: 0 contracts15¢ price bucket: 0 contracts20¢ price bucket: 0 contracts25¢ price bucket: 0 contracts30¢ price bucket: 0 contracts35¢ price bucket: 0 contracts40¢ price bucket: 211 contracts45¢ current price bucket: 235 contracts50¢ price bucket: 8 contracts55¢ price bucket: 40 contracts60¢ price bucket: 53 contracts65¢ price bucket: 0 contracts70¢ price bucket: 33 contracts75¢ price bucket: 319 contracts80¢ crowd cost basis / POC: 1,197 contracts85¢ price bucket: 0 contracts90¢ price bucket: 193 contracts95¢ price bucket: 5 contracts100¢ price bucket: 0 contracts10¢25¢40¢50¢60¢75¢90¢100¢ContractsPrice bucket

Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.

Financials reversion history

Category-level base rate for unusual moves.

38% GAVE BACK
62% CONTINUED
1046unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
38%partial reversion rate
10%avg move given back