Overview / Financials / Contract detail
Will the S&P/TSX Composite Index be at least 37,000 in 2026?
Settles Dec 31, 12AM ET
46¢current price
-0.35σoverextension z · high
80¢crowd cost basis
-34¢distance from crowd basis
46.1×vol vs peers
2,28924h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Financials cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
46.1×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0475Category median logit vol/hr
80¢Crowd cost basis
66%Cost-basis conviction
1046Similar category unusual moves
38%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 66% · profiled volume 2,294 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Financials reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
1046unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
38%partial reversion rate
10%avg move given back