Overview / Sports / Contract detail
Will any country not ranked in the top 10 of the FIFA Men's World Ranking at the time of issuance reach the semifinals of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?
Closes in 17d·Other sports
50¢current price
+0.08σoverextension z · high
50¢crowd cost basis
+0¢distance from crowd basis
3.9×vol vs peers
6,29524h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
3.9×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0522Category median logit vol/hr
50¢Crowd cost basis
48%Cost-basis conviction
262Similar category unusual moves
44%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 48% · profiled volume 92,581 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Sports reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
262unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
44%partial reversion rate
9%avg move given back