Overview / Sports / Contract detail
Will Lionel Messi score 10+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?
Closes in 23d·Other sports
50¢current price
-7.60σoverextension z · low
55¢crowd cost basis
-4¢distance from crowd basis
6.98×vol vs peers
5,39124h contracts
Market context
Comparisons against the broader Sports cohort and similar historical unusual moves. These are descriptive base rates, not a prediction.
6.98×Vol vs comparable peers
0.0486Category median logit vol/hr
55¢Crowd cost basis
79%Cost-basis conviction
248Similar category unusual moves
44%Partial reversion base rate
Price History
Fixed 0–100¢ chart from collected snapshot mid-prices. Hover points for observed values. The gold dashed line marks crowd cost basis when available.
Volume-at-price profile
Current probability versus the approximate volume-weighted crowd cost basis. Conviction 79% · profiled volume 9,949 contracts. Hover bars for bucket volumes.
Gold = crowd cost basis / POC. Blue = current price bucket.
Sports reversion history
Category-level base rate for unusual moves.
248unusual moves observed (|Z| ≥ 2)
44%partial reversion rate
8%avg move given back